National Intelligence Bulletin for Friday, 18 July 2025

// National Intelligence Bulletin to follow.

(1) Imminent Risk

Cybersecurity: U.S. officials described China’s hacking environment as “less constrained” as cyber exploitation and hacks continue to increase this year. Chinese companies are allowed to conduct their own independent cyber reconnaissance and penetration against U.S. critical infrastructure, identifying targets for military hackers. (China continues to acknowledge that these attacks are happening, but denies any connection to the Chinese government.)

(2) Elevated Risk

Low Intensity Conflict: We’re tracking at least 357 protests this weekend, which is about baseline for weekends. As usual, most will be small and relatively peaceful. / Anarchist blogs called for a “Black August” of direct action in retribution for the death of three anarchist militants.

Energy: The Energy Information Administration (EIA) reports that the total operating capacity of U.S. coal-fired power plants is scheduled to fall from 172 gigawatts (GW) in May 2025 to 145 GW by the end of 2028, which is likely to cause power shortfalls in some areas. Of that 27 GW drop, 58% of the planned coal capacity retirements are in the Midwest and Mid-Atlantic regions.

(3) Outlook Stable

NATO: Supreme Allied Commander of Europe (SACEUR) General Alexus Grynkewich told a European defense conference that NATO must prepare for a two-front war against Russia and China. Grynkewich repeated several times that there is very little time to rearm Europe. / President Trump announced that if Russian President Putin does not end the war in Ukraine in 50 days, on roughly 02 September, then the U.S. will issue 100% “secondary tariffs” on all countries who continue to purchase Russian oil.

Indo-Pacific: The Taiwanese Navy and Air Force practiced escorting an American landing ship from a U.S. carrier strike group into an eastern port city, offloading supplies, and exiting the port. Taiwanese defense officials expect the U.S. to resupply Taiwan in the event of a blockade. / According to anonymous officials, the Taiwanese and Philippine governments have been having unofficial security talks since April. These have resulted in quietly performing joint patrols of the Bashi Channel, high-level talks to familiarize each other with doctrine, and Taiwanese military members observing U.S.-Philippine exercises.

This abbreviated report from Forward Observer is sent out via ham radio networks to ensure continuity of information-sharing during a crisis. Nothing follows. //